[ale] OT Just bought my 1st & 2nd "lighting-class" LED bulbs

[Phil Turmel]

[trim /]

On 07/23/2013 10:07 PM, Ron Frazier (ALE) wrote:
> Hi Alex,
> 
> Now that you mention it, it's been several years since I ran the
> pricing, so my number may be off.  You have to account for all the
> "balance of system" stuff.  Grid tie inverters and net metering
> weren't as readily available, so my original estimate probably
> included a 3 day battery bank, which would be BIG.  The number I
> posted in this message was more of a rule of thumb number than a
> precise estimate.  But, I distinctly remember that the rule of thumb
> used to be $ 10 / watt all said and done.
> 
> So, you have to account for panels, mounts, inverter(s), disconnects,
> combiners, safety equipment, wires, cables, installer labor,
> electrician labor, inspections, hardware, conduit, excavating,
> trenching, drilling, etc.  It all adds up.
> 
> Even if I use your number of $ 80 K, if I'm saving $ 230 / mo, that
> works out to a 29 year payback.  That's not very enticing.

Short of new-car rip-offs, I'm not aware of anyone offering capital at
0% interest.  It you are comparing against a 1% money market account, it
is 34 years, not 29.  If you are trying to use a home equity loan--at
current 3.25% rates--you can barely cover the interest (82 year payback).

Of course, at anything over ten years, you can't get those rates, and
you really need to compare against long-term mutual funds.  It's no
contest.  Solar markets are collapsing worldwide because the math simply
doesn't work, even with subsidies.

Phil