[ale] OT Just bought my 1st & 2nd "lighting-class" LED bulbs

[Ron Frazier (ALE)]

Alex Carver <agcarver+ale at acarver.net> wrote:

>On 7/23/2013 17:17, Ron Frazier (ALE) wrote:
>
>> Mike W, and all,
>>
>> I've studied solar quite a bit.  I have a subscription to Home Power
>> magazine.  I like the idea but getting payback in any good time frame
>> is hard, in the South East, even if the wife problem were fixable.
>> Big problem is heating, cooling, and dehumidifying.  I tell people I
>> could solarize my house for the price of the house.  A 15 KW array,
>> for about $ 150,000 would do nicely.
>
>Where did you get that number?  Solar power has been below the $3/Watt 
>mark for a while now.  The mythical figure from the solar cell research
>
>arena was $1/Watt and they're close to that now.  I just checked and 
>good Kyocera panels are running at a bit north of $2.10/Watt.  Your
>15KW 
>array would only be $32k not $150k.  Even if you factor shipping (about
>
>$2k) and the grid tie inverter (about $23k for a 15kW unit), you're 
>still below $60k for the whole system.
>
>To take into account solar angles, you could add about $5k to the
>system 
>for tilt control which will let you optimize the tilt angle for summer 
>and winter conditions.  Go all out with a sun tracker for maybe $20k
>and 
>you're still less than what you claim.
>
>

Hi Alex,

Now that you mention it, it's been several years since I ran the pricing, so my number may be off.  You have to account for all the "balance of system" stuff.  Grid tie inverters and net metering weren't as readily available, so my original estimate probably included a 3 day battery bank, which would be BIG.  The number I posted in this message was more of a rule of thumb number than a precise estimate.  But, I distinctly remember that the rule of thumb used to be $ 10 / watt all said and done.

So, you have to account for panels, mounts, inverter(s), disconnects, combiners, safety equipment, wires, cables, installer labor, electrician labor, inspections, hardware, conduit, excavating, trenching, drilling, etc.  It all adds up.

Even if I use your number of $ 80 K, if I'm saving $ 230 / mo, that works out to a 29 year payback.  That's not very enticing.

Just for kicks, I pulled the latest Home Power magazine and looked for an example system.  I found a 12 KW PV system in Oregon which cost $ 44 K installed before any rebates, incentives, or tax credits.  This system did NOT have a battery system, nor did it have a sun tracker.  That works out to $ 3.67 / KW.  So, maybe indeed, some progress has been made on pricing.

Even so, a 15 KW system would cost $ 55 K without tracking, which lowers annual production; and without batteries, which means you're out of luck in a power failure.  Payback would still be 20 years, which is still not too enticing.

The person in the article reduced his system to around $ 20 K with federal and state tax credits and a city rebate.  I don't know if we have as much available on a state or city basis.  Tax credits are hard to use unless you have a pile of cash since you have to wait until the next  tax filing period to get your money back, and you only get back up to the amount you owe.

So, even with new numbers, it's still hard to get a good payback period, where I would define good as 7 years or less.

I spent a good bit of time trying to build an energy conservation business based on a franchise I and my wife bought.  That failed largely because the vendor was unreliable.  However, many corporations we talked to as potential customers wanted a 1 year payback for energy saving measures.  That, generally, wasn't something that it was feasible to offer.

I guess I should say I could solarize the home for 1/3 of it's price.

Sincerely,

Ron



--

Sent from my Android Acer A500 tablet with bluetooth keyboard and K-9 Mail.
Please excuse my potential brevity if I'm typing on the touch screen.

(PS - If you email me and don't get a quick response, you might want to
call on the phone.  I get about 300 emails per day from alternate energy
mailing lists and such.  I don't always see new email messages very quickly.)

Ron Frazier
770-205-9422 (O)   Leave a message.
linuxdude AT techstarship.com
Litecoin: LZzAJu9rZEWzALxDhAHnWLRvybVAVgwTh3
Bitcoin: 15s3aLVsxm8EuQvT8gUDw3RWqvuY9hPGUU