[ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change

Doug McNash dmcnash at charter.net
Mon Dec 14 11:21:23 EST 2009 

Jim,

I thought you declared and end to this?
Nevertheless I will still play as long as there is no objection from the list. 
ALE has a long tradition of OT threads, most of which I have found educational and amusing in the past.

So far as far as I have been able determine, the only provable fraud has been been with the handling of the Briffa tree ring data.  The tree ring measurements are used as a proxy for temperature for the recent period before the invention of the thermometer.  But this proxy shows a decrease in global temperature since 1960. Oops. Can't have that muddying the waters.  What to do?  Well adding another data set of real temps ("the trick") to the tree ring was one way to fix it. Applying a "VERY ARTIFICIAL correction" (in briffa_sep98_d.pro) was another.  The IPCC in AR4 report just cut the tree ring data graph line off past 1960 thereby "hiding the decline".

I don't think that anyone needs advanced training to recognize the problem with this kind of manipulation. (I have a degree in Math, which probably moves me from "mere mortal" to "peasant with a pitchfork".)  I believe most everyone on this list can recognize the problem with those advanced statistical techniques. To paraphrase Martin Luther, you don't need to be a priest.

In science, the divergence of the tree ring data would have led to a re-evaluation of at least the use of that proxy or at most the whole climate model. It appears that the warmer community has too much invested in the tree ring proxy to do either. 

   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235395/SPECIAL-INVESTIGATION-Climate-change-emails-row-deepens--Russians-admit-DID-send-them.html

As for the Darwin station, there is obviously a problem with the data set. 
IMHO it is a Red Herring some choose to chase.

Returning to the underlying theme -

Let us review the similarity of Climate Change to a Religious Cult.

"Original Sin" = humans pollute the Earth

"The Apocalyptic Vision" = Hurricanes, Ice caps melting, Sea level rising, Polar bears dying, cats and dogs living together.

"Climate Scientists" = Priesthood
 
“Climate Change Denier” = Heretic and blasphemer

"Anthropomorphic Global Warming" = Dogma

“Peer review” = Orthodoxy

"Repent and be Saved" = put on  sackcloth and ashes,  buy your carbon credit indulgences from Pope Al Gore and Goldman Sachs 
(Carbon Credit markets were an Enron invention, don'tca know?)

In support of this theme I found this creepy religious tract for recruitment into the Climate Change Cult

    http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/Sellthesizzle.pdf


William,

If we agree the Expected Value

    Ev = Cost of Event x Probability of Event

For example the Lottery pays out about 25 cents on the dollar

	Ev = $1.00 x 0.25 = 25 cents	
	
What is the expected value calculation for AGW?
What are the cites to the "peer reviewed" journal articles? 
(peer review seems to be the the new mantra)

Extra credit.
What is the "ideal global temperature"?
(peer reviewed, of course)

You seem to argue for adding a Fear term (The Apocalyptic Vision) to the equation

    Ev = (Cost^Fear) x (Probability) where Fear > 1

Now we are talking "hockey stick" graphs.
But it's not math or science, it's emotional manipulation.

Besides it violates rule 1 of "The Rules of the Game"

    http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/RulesOfTheGame.pdf

Thank you for playing.

I know I am preaching against the choir.

--
doug mcnash

---- Jim Kinney <jim.kinney at gmail.com> wrote: 
> A blog post from The Economist is quite good at pointing out the fact that
> "mere mortals" can't do the statistics it takes to make the raw data make
> sense over a longer period than a few years or decades.
> 
> http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists
> 
> It also points out that "cherry picking" one data set to "prove" the "fraud"
> of AGW is just a waste of everyone's time.
> 
> On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William Fragakis <william at fragakis.com>wrote:
> 
> > No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were once
> > glaciers.
> >
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
> >
> > Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been definitely
> > busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of the
> > social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of farmland)
> > that led to the Rwanda genocide.
> >
> > And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and
> > Newsweek.
> > Time includes this quote "
> > "Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather
> > Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may
> > be only temporary. "
> >
> > Which may well be why the article's title includes a question mark. What
> > that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is the
> > cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)
> >
> > But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an economist
> > where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K. points
> > out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn out
> > not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future
> > generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed in the
> > movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc. (Again,
> > see Rwanda.)
> >
> > By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of
> > significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd guess,
> > buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences are
> > enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what to do
> > if we spot one coming.
> >
> > You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations that
> > AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too great
> > even if you assume the probabilities small.
> >
> > Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the sky.
> > Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't be.
> > Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but locally.*
> > There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed
> > themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of
> > feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to see
> > the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without summer
> > as happened in the early 1800s.
> >
> > Regards,
> > William
> >
> > *quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:
> > The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily averted in
> > Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the situation is
> > only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of population of
> > Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.
> >
> > David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined that
> > the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point where all
> > can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the
> > world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7] There
> > is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for
> > example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying
> > at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly
> > preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the standard of
> > misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be
> > construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,
> > malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and
> > political unrest.
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:
> > > The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
> > >
> > > I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice age.
> > >
> > > "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time  June 24, 1974
> > >     http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
> > >
> > > "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975
> > >     http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
> > >
> > > Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.
> > >
> > > The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not occurred
> > yet even though it keeps getting revised.
> > >
> > >     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
> > >
> > > As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double up on
> > your meds!
> > >
> > > (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the planet and
> > no one will hear it scream)
> > >
> > >     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM
> > >
> > > Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence
> > > --
> > > doug mcnash
> > >
> > > ---- aaron <aaron at pd.org> wrote:
> > > > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very
> > > > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method and
> > > > peer review.  It has reinforced my certainty that this is a problem
> > > > that could affect the survival of our species and is something we
> > > > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research
> > > > and potential sustainable solutions.
> > > >
> > > > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of greenhouse
> > > > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the activities
> > > > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing greenhouse
> > > > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of human
> > > > population growth is also out of control and continues to escalate,
> > > > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for stemming
> > > > the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well as
> > > > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources, will
> > > > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous consequences.
> > > >
> > > > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally rational
> > > > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare state
> > > > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even
> > > > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue.  The hate zombies
> > > > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the glutinous,
> > > > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's resources and
> > > > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will
> > > > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but not
> > > > them) in massive global catastrophes.  The "Cap and Trade"
> > > > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that
> > > > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to provide
> > > > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the
> > > > world's populace without any accountability or consequence --
> > > > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!
> > > >
> > > > The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of
> > > > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the
> > > > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of
> > > > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)
> > > > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat in
> > > > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax increases
> > > > imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the
> > > > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can magically
> > > > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the
> > > > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively
> > > > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's
> > > > children so long as it's being done to support imperialist invasions
> > > > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown people
> > > > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs claim
> > > > ownership of it all.
> > > >
> > > > <http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial>
> > > >
> > > >
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> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> -- 
> James P. Kinney III
> Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness

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