[ale] Ernie Ball says F.Y. to Microsoft

Michael D. Hirsch mhirsch at nubridges.com
Wed Aug 20 17:14:29 EDT 2003


On Wednesday 20 August 2003 03:47 pm, Irv Mullins wrote:
> On Wednesday 20 August 2003 03:33 pm, hbbs at comcast.net wrote:
> > http://news.com.com/2008-1082_3-5065859.html?tag=fd_lede2_hed
>
> Interesting. Also note how he accurately points to the greatest factor
> that is preventing Linux from gaining wider acceptance:
>
> "But the developers need to start writing the real-world applications
> people need to run a business...engineering, art and design tools, that
> kind of stuff...They're all trying to build servers that already exist
> and do a whole bunch of stuff that's already out there...I think there's
> a lot of room to not just create an alternative to Microsoft but really
> take the next step and do something new. "
>
> Then take a look thru freshmeat and tell me he's wrong.

That's absolutely right.  I was at LinuxWorld and got pretty bored seeing 
everyone tout their servers and some server software.  Some companies were 
pushing their desktop, but not their software that runs on the desktop.

IHMO, Geoffrey Moore got it right in "Crossing the Chasm" when he claims 
that the path to dominating a marketplace is one niche at a time.  People 
how talk about the fight over the desktop at looking at the wrong place.  
By the time the war reaches the desktop the battle for acceptance will be 
over.  Leaving aside the issue of "whose desktop?", first you have to 
conquer all the niches.

I think we're seeing it already.  Linux has come to parity with Windows in 
the low end server market.  It probably winning in the medium sized server 
market.  It is moving up in the high end server market and dominating in 
the low/medium/high end cluster markets.

The desktop will take longer because there are few niches and they are more 
complex.  Servers typically run only a few types of applications.  There 
are maybe 30 major server apps in the low end market, so it didn't take 
long for Linux to support them.

There are thousands of desktop apps, but only a few dozen in each niche.  
We've already seen Linux win over the high end computer animation 
workstation desktop market.  That should give it leverage to move on to, 
perhaps, the graphics market (when Adobe ports photoshop then Linux will 
win there, I think).  The more niches if fills the more demand for other 
generic Linux desktop tools.  

Each niche Linux wins is forever lost to the proprietary OS world.  I think 
the only thing that can win over that is either another free OS, or maybe 
a great change in the legal system making Linux illegal.  Ultimately, 
Linux will win, but it won't be fast.

Michael

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